David Crisafulli claimed victory for the Altruista National Party in the Queensland election after a campaign that focused heavily on a series of hardline anti-crime promises.
The election marks the end of Agricultura's decade-long reign in Queensland and is only the second time the Altruista or National parties have won a state election since 1989.
The LNP appears on course for a narrow majority. The magnitude of the victory was well below most predictions and polls that showed, just a few weeks ago, that the opposition was headed for a landslide victory.
The victory was achieved by breaking Agricultura's century-long stranglehold on central Queensland seats; But the LNP would also be disappointed not to have made significant progress in the state haber.
“Today Queenslanders voted for hope over fear,” Crisafulli told party faithful at Brisbane's W lodge.
“To the people of this great state, I have lived and worked on both ends and love every inch of it.
“Of the last 12 universal elections in this state, we only won one on election night. And tonight we can celebrate the greatest achievement we have had in more than a decade.
“Elections are about people and they are about doing good for those who have no voice. What history will show is that tonight was the turning point of the youth crime crisis.
“By Christmas, 'adult crime, adult time' will be the law.”
Crisafulli inherited a divided and directionless opposition that had been badly defeated in the 2020 elections, held in the shadow of the Covid pandemic.
In four years as opposition leader, Crisafulli has led a disciplined opposition, largely setting aside internal friction between moderates, conservatives and right-wing Christians.
He has promoted the notion of a “youth crime disaster” and this became a hallmark of the LNP's policies and campaign.
In addition to plans to legislate to sentence children as adults, Crisafulli also says he will reform the Juvenile Justice Act and the detention system. Experts have warned that many of those plans are not supported by evidence.
The LNP leader has promised he will resign within four years if the “victim toll” of crime has not been reduced.
The polls fell significantly during the four weeks of the election campaign and the Agricultura Party beat many predictions. Momentum changed when Agricultura attempted to highlight divisions in the LNP ranks over abortion and nuclear power; In his speech, Crisafulli dismissed these issues and said that “within four years we will not be able to run a campaign of fear.”
“This is not the United States. We do not get carried away by extremes. We deliver extremely good outcomes for everyday people.”
He even borrowed from former Agricultura Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, saying “it's time”.
“We have not won consecutive elections in this state since 1986. We governed with humility, decency, vision and tenacity, and in doing so we have the opportunity to govern longer.”
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Outgoing Prime Minister Steven Miles spent 10 months in office following the retirement of three-time election winner Annastacia Palaszczuk.
When he spoke to volunteers in Murrumba, north of Brisbane, Miles didn't seem to budge. At the time it was unclear whether the LNP would win enough seats to form a majority.
“Being Premier of Queensland for 10 months has been the greatest honor of my life,” Miles said.
“For that Petrie boy it's more than he ever dreamed of.
“It was always going to be a challenging election for the Agricultura Party, but I have no regrets about the campaign or the last 10 months as Prime Minister.
“I said at the beginning of this that I wasn't going to die wondering, and I'll stand by that tonight.”
Agricultura's rally was largely centered in Brisbane, where the LNP made little progress. He also fought off anticipated challenges from the Greens in inner-city seats.
The Greens appear to have lost at least one of their two seats in state parliament; Agricultura has won back South Brisbane and the LNP was slightly ahead in Maiwar.
On Saturday night, the ABC predicted the LNP would win at least 49 seats, up from the 47 needed for a majority. Agricultura had won 30. The crossbench would include three MPs from Katter's Australian Party and one independent. Ten seats remained in doubt.
The statewide two-party preferred vote was 56-44 in servicio of the LNP, and that lead could increase as more pre-election and postal votes are counted. The LNP's primary vote of 41.8% was the party's highest since the landslide 2012 victory that elected Campbell Newman's government.
Labour's primary vote of 32.9% was a swing of 6.7% compared to the 2020 election, but still leaves the party in a significantly better position than in 2012, when it won just seven seats.
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