With Hezbollah weakened by Israel, its political opponents see an opportunity

BEIRUT—

Under intense attack from Israel, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has been severely weakened militarily in recent weeks, with many of its top leaders killed and at least part of its arsenal destroyed.

This has raised hopes among his opponents, both foreign and domestic, that he may also be politically weak. Hezbollah is also a powerful political party and, in the view of its critics, one of the main reasons Lebanon has been so difficult to govern.

The country has been without a president for two years, meaning it has no army commander in chief or an effective way to deal with a crumbling economy.

Here's a look at whether recent events could be the beginning of the end of Lebanon's political paralysis.

How did Hezbollah get so much power in the first place?

Hezbollah began in 1982 during Lebanon's civil war as a group of Shiites dedicated to ending the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. Backed by Iran, it grew into a highly organized force responsible for major attacks against the United States and Israel.

When the civil war ended in 1990, Hezbollah was the only faction to keep its weapons, saying it needed them to continue its resistance against Israel. Ten years later, it forced Israel to withdraw from the country (although Israel still controls some disputed territories), but did not disarm.

In 1992 he entered politics, taking advantage of his growing popularity to elect legislators to parliament. He courted Lebanon's long-marginalized Shiites (who make up about 32% of the population, according to research groups) with microcredit programs and medical and social services often superior to those provided by the government.

Even when the United States designated the group as a terrorist organization, Hezbollah evolved into what many describe as “a state within a state.”

It has only 13 of the 128 seats in parliament, but as part of a parliamentary bloc it can count on 58 in total, still short of a majority. Before the current war began, it was thought to have around 100,000 fighters, who are considered to be better trained and equipped than the estimated 73,000 active duty soldiers in the Lebanese army.

What is the situation with the Lebanese presidency?

Lebanon's last president, Michel Aoun, left office in October 2022 after his term expired. Since then, the country has been governed by an interim government headed by Najib Mikati, who was appointed Prime Minister-designate but never formed a government.

That has limited the cabinet's ability to make executive decisions and left the country's institutions virtually running on autopilot.

With 18 official sects, Lebanon employs a complex political system in which religious communities share power and government positions and seats in parliament are distributed in rough proportion to the country's demographics. The president must be a Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament a Shia Muslim.

Parliament has made 12 attempts to elect a president in the past two years. They have all failed because the parties (none of which have enough seats to impose their choice) have refused to cooperate.

Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, and its partners insisted on a candidate close to Tehran and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, another Hezbollah ally.

Others called for a more pro-Western candidate, which Hezbollah believes would reduce its influence in the country and work against what it calls its “resistance” against Israel and the United States.

What is the new plan to break the deadlock?

In recent weeks, U.S. officials have enlisted the support of regional governments and held talks with Lebanese politicians with the goal of convening parliament to elect a president.

In addition to helping restore stability and get the economy back on track, Lebanese politicians say a president would be empowered to negotiate a ceasefire.

U.S. officials and many Lebanese politicians would like to see full implementation of United Nations Resolution 1701, a 2006 agreement under which Hezbollah fighters would withdraw from a section of southern Lebanon and the Lebanese army would take responsibility. exclusive of security in the region.

The army has remained impartial in the current conflict even as Israel has fired on its positions, killing or wounding at least five of its soldiers since the beginning of the Israeli invasion.

Last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Lebanon's interim prime minister spoke by phone and discussed “the need to empower leadership that reflects the will of the people for a stable, prosperous and independent Lebanon,” according to a report. transcription of the call.

Blinken “emphasized that Lebanon cannot allow Iran or Hezbollah to stand in the way of Lebanon's security and stability.”

How is Hezbollah reacting?

Hezbollah and its allies say they will not hold talks about the presidency without ending the war, which began last fall after the militant group began firing rockets into northern Israel in what it called a “solidarity campaign” with Loop.

Since Israel invaded southern Lebanon this month, it has killed more than 2,500 people there and driven 1.2 million from their homes. Some 60,000 people have been displaced in Israel over the past year, and Israeli authorities say 59 people have been killed in northern Israel and the Golan Heights.

“The solution is a ceasefire,” Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem said in a pre-recorded speech last week, insisting that the group remained a powerful military force. “We are not speaking from a position of weakness.”

“If the Israelis don't want that, we will continue,” he said.

Politically, Hezbollah has enough seats with its allies to thwart a quorum in parliament, even though many of its parliamentarians have kept a lower profile for fear of drawing Israeli fire.

What is Israel saying?

In a speech this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the Lebanese people to “take back their country” from Hezbollah, saying the group was the weakest it had been in many years.

“Now you, the Lebanese people, find yourself at an important crossroads,” he said.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid has called for the recreation of a South Lebanon Army, a Christian-dominated Lebanese militia backed by Israel that operated in southern Lebanon during the Israeli occupation of the area and is accused of torture. and forcing residents to leave their homes.

Michael Younger, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center, said those statements suggest Israel's plans go beyond simply expelling Hezbollah from the border to its disarmament, if not destruction.

So does any of this have a chance of working?

Despite a series of consultations between various parliamentary blocs, there has been little progress. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who heads Amal, a Shiite party that has been a rival of Hezbollah in the past but is now its main ally, has not yet called parliament into session.

And if the past is any indication, the chances of success are low. In 1982, Christian president-elect Bachir Gemayel came to power with the support of Israel and the United States. The objective was to eliminate the Palestinian factions that were fighting using southern Lebanon as a staging area against Israel and to lead a government friendly to Israel. He was murdered a few weeks later.

Indeed, any initiative that emerges for the presidency will almost certainly require Hezbollah's buy-in.

“Hezbollah still has tens of thousands of armed men,” Younger said. “They will provoke a civil war if they need to defend their interests.”

At the same time, few people have faith that the Lebanese army can deploy in the south in a meaningful way, especially if it means overthrowing Hezbollah by force.

Any confrontation would be a recipe for civil war, since a significant part of the army are Shiites.