Beirut, Lebanon – Israeli forces killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in combat on Wednesday in a surprise shootout in Rafah.
The news raised some hopes among Western commentators that the assassination could be an opportunity to end the ongoing war in Gaza or even the broader conflict between Israel and Palestine.
However, analysts told Al Jazeera that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would look for other pretexts to keep his country at war for personal gain and promote an Israeli expansionist dream of expelling the Palestinians and maintaining an indefinite occupation of their lands.
Netanyahu's fears
Netanyahu has long feared losing power due to the possibility of spending several years behind bars.
In 2019, he was accused of three different cases: fraud, bribery and breach of trust. If convicted, he risks up to 10 years in prison.
According to the allegations, Netanyahu offered favors and gifts to media moguls in exchange for positive press.
A year later, Netanyahu was elected prime minister for a fifth term. His far-right parliamentary coalition quickly proposed laws that would undermine the country's judiciary by allowing the government to appoint judges, limit oversight of the court and even override it.
Meanwhile, International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan requested an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for the atrocities they have overseen in Gaza.
“[Netanyahu] He will look for another pretext, or another person, to continually pursue. That will only generate more insecurity, which is what he wants,” said Diana Buttu, an analyst of the Israel-Palestine conflict.
“He wants to make Israelis believe that they are under a state of siege or war… That is his way of controlling them and staying in power,” he told Al Jazeera.
That Netanyahu appears to be pursuing escalation became evident on Saturday after a Hezbollah drone reportedly attacked his home in Caesarea.
However, Netanyahu said the attack was carried out by “agents of Iran,” a departure that some analysts believe lays the groundwork for further expanding the war to include Iran, far beyond the Gaza Strip and the Lebanese group. .
'Locked in a permanent conflict'
In October last year, Israel launched its war on Gaza, killing more than 42,000 people and uprooting almost the entire population of 2.3 million. And the death of Sinwar – Israel's “enemy number one” – is unlikely to stop him.
“I don't think Sinwar's death will change Israel's calculations in terms of Netanyahu's desire to proceed with the destruction and depopulation of the Gaza Strip,” said Omar Rahman, visiting fellow on Israel-Palestine at the Global East Affairs Council. Half. tank in Doha.
Israel's war against Gaza civilians began in apparent response to a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, during which 1,139 people were killed in Israel and some 250 were taken captive.
Gaza had already been suffering since the siege imposed by Israel in 2007, with living standards deteriorating to the point that international observers and world leaders soon began referring to it as “the world's largest open-air prison.”
Israel had just ended its physical occupation of Gaza in 2005, withdrawing its military presence and vacating illegal settlements into which Israeli settlers had moved. But the move had little to do with granting territory and eventually a state to the Palestinians.
Israel's then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon simply believed that Israeli settlers in Gaza were surrounded by too many Palestinians, making them a burden on the security system. He preferred to withdraw from Gaza and focus on expanding settlements in the West Bank.
This was not exceptional, as Israel has historically obstructed political solutions that would lead to a fully sovereign Palestinian state, Yezid Sayigh, an expert on Israel-Palestine and the Middle East at the Carnegie Center East Heart think tank in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.
“Israel has assassinated many Palestinian leaders before and will continue to do so. “Nothing has ever changed because, fundamentally, successive Israeli governments – even under the Labor Party, not just Likud – have not been willing to give up territory or give up genuine Palestinian sovereignty,” he said.
“The result: [Israel] “It has locked itself into a permanent conflict and throughout this time they have continued to prefer military responses because they put themselves in a position in which there are no political solutions,” he added.
Netanyahu appears to continue that trend.
On Friday, he said Israel must continue its war against Gaza to “rescue the remaining Israeli captives” and against Lebanon, against which Israel has opened another front in an apparent attempt to “dismantle Hezbollah and restore security in the north.” of Israel.”
Since October 7, Netanyahu has obstructed numerous ceasefire attempts despite apparent pressure from his main backer, the United States.
On July 31, Netanyahu even ordered his security forces to assassinate Hamas political chief – and chief ceasefire negotiator – Ismael Haniyeh during his visit to Iran, where he attended the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Israeli political commentator Oren Ziv said Sinwar's latest assassination emboldens Israel's far right, which has continued to support Netanyahu's calls for a “complete victory” in Gaza, behaving, he said, like “drug addicts.”
“Sinwar's death is a dose for now, but it will not satisfy right-wing public opinion or the government. [in the long term]. “They are looking for more killings and more war,” he told Al Jazeera.
There are no lessons learned
In March 2004, Israel assassinated Hamas founder and spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who was a quadriplegic, by firing three missiles at him as he left a mosque near his home in Gaza after praying.
Before he died, Ahmed Yassin had called for a cold peace with Israel, which would be conditional on Israel withdrawing its troops from Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
Israel's response was to attempt to destroy Hamas by assassinating Ahmed Yassin and other Palestinian leaders.
The approach failed, as Hamas won a large majority in the last Palestinian legislative elections in January 2006, Buttu recalls.
“Hamas ended up becoming even stronger than it was. [when Ahmed Yassin was alive]”he told Al Jazeera.
“Over time… more people recognize that [Israel] “You can try to kill the resistance leaders, but you will never kill the resistance,” he added.
Rahman of the Middle East Council echoes the view that Hamas will continue to survive the ongoing war despite being severely degraded.
“Organizationally speaking, [killing Sinwar] It further degrades Hamas from an operational and leadership point of view. But the organization is intact… it has fighters operating in cells without centralized leadership,” he told Al Jazeera.
Regardless of whether Hamas survives, Palestinian resistance will persist in some form, Rahman added.
Noting that the armed struggle has its roots in the suffering that Palestinians have endured due to Israel's entrenched occupation, Buttu and Rahman said that Israel's complete destruction of Gaza would only aggravate Palestinian grievances.
“The underlying grievances [of Palestinians] “They are not being addressed… therefore resistance to Israeli dispossession will continue,” Rahman told Al Jazeera.
“It's as easy as that. That is the easy equation.”