In hot N'Djamena, an unknown new language, Hungarian, flows alongside the usual mix of Arabic and French, indicating the presence of diplomats from Chad's new international partner.
Last year alone, Hungary opened a diplomatic mission in the Sahelian nation, inaugurated a humanitarian center and pledged $200 million in aid. He also plans to send soldiers to help Chad fight armed groups.
The aid is a generous gesture from a Central European country that has not previously had substantial relations with Chad, but it is also surprising, experts said.
Hungary is one of the poorest countries in Europe and currently has no economic involvement in Chad or the Sahel. There are no Hungarian communities there either.
However, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has stressed the need for Europe to befriend the Sahel countries, where he said a toxic mix of armed groups and military governments is fueling migration.
“Migration from Africa to Europe cannot be stopped without the countries of the Sahel region. … That is why Hungary is building a cooperative partnership with Chad,” Orban said in September.
Poverty and armed groups
Officials in Budapest said the newly built humanitarian center in N'Djamena will help coordinate 150 million to 200 million euros ($162 million to $216 million) in humanitarian aid, which will target the arid country's agricultural and educational sectors and help to promote digitalization. An additional €1 million ($1.08 million) from the state aid agency Hungary Aid will go towards financing healthcare.
Orban's government said the issue is to respond locally to development problems, including poverty and inadequate health care, before people are driven to seek a better life in Europe.
Chad is one of the poorest countries in Africa. Forty-two percent of its 20 million inhabitants live on less than $2.15 a day, according to the World Food Program. The disruption of trade with war-torn neighbor Sudan has raised food prices, putting further pressure on the economy. In addition, it has welcomed 1.2 million people fleeing the conflict in Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR). Hungary's argument: if Chad is destabilized, it could open a “floodgate” of people to Europe.
Last month, Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno landed at Budapest airport, dressed in his trademark flowing white jilbab for a two-day state visit to Hungary. There, Deby and Orban finalized the terms of the humanitarian package, marking Hungary's first aid treaty with an African nation.
Orban also announced that 200 Hungarian soldiers will be deployed to Chad to train local forces against armed groups. Chad faces multiple threats from groups that want to overthrow Deby, from Central African Republic rebel groups operating on Chad's southern border to Boko Haram, whose fighters have settled along Lake Chad, bordering Nigeria.
It is unclear when the forces will be deployed and whether they will play an active or supporting role. Chad's National Assembly would have to approve the measure, but this has not happened yet and there is no clear timeline for when lawmakers will vote.
In the Hungarian National Assembly, controlled by Orban's ruling coalition made up of his Fidesz party and the Christian Democratic Widespread Party, lawmakers approved the security agreement when it was first presented in November 2023 by a 140-30 vote.
In addition to the military deployment, Hungary said it had “initiated” the transfer of an additional 14 million euros ($15 million) of its contributions to the European Peace Fund (EPF) to Chad.
The EPF, formed in 2021, allows European Union members to pool contributions and jointly deliver military aid to partner countries. Much of the funding has gone to Ukraine, although Orban – an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is waging war in Ukraine – has repeatedly thwarted efforts by other EU members to send more funds to kyiv.
In September, Hungary formally asked other EU members to approve its transfers to Chad. There is no explicit approval from the bloc yet, but at the time, Orban said Hungary hoped other members would agree.
'Confluence of stability and conflict'
During Deby's visit in September, Orban said the goal of military and development cooperation with Chad was to stop migration from Africa, a phenomenon that many European countries see as a threat amid rising levels of migration in recent years. years.
“It seemed like a bit of a random choice, but in retrospect, it actually makes sense,” said Beverly Ochieng, an analyst at Management Dangers, a UK-based intelligence firm.
“Chad has one of the strongest armies in the region,” he told Al Jazeera. “However, despite the threats it faces, the government maintains strong stability and strong acceptance of the military there.”
Over the past decade, the Sahel region – the strip of land below the Sahara – has faced increasing levels of violence from armed groups and, as a result, emigration. In Mali and Burkina Faso in the western Sahel, armed groups are seizing swaths of land, while Niger also faces growing threats. Although the military seized power through coups and expelled foreign forces – including French, US and EU troops – it has largely failed to fulfill its promises to restore peace.
Chad faces pressure from conflicts in neighboring countries but remains largely safe, having pushed Chadian rebel groups to the periphery following the death of Deby's father, former president Idriss Deby, in 2021. Various aid groups are using the country as a base to respond. to the crisis in Sudan.
The new agreement aligns with Orban's ambitions. The Prime Minister has long called for stricter checks on people entering the EU. In July, Hungary assumed the role of rotating EU presidency, allowing Orban to further push his agenda. This week, Orban pushed for the EU to file asylum applications in countries outside the bloc.
A push for influence?
Some analysts said Orban could also be trying to join an ongoing power play in Africa in which major powers such as Russia, China, the United States, India and the EU compete for influence.
The continent's vast natural resources, its growing population and its collective weight in the United Nations General Assembly make it attractive.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has taken advantage of the fallout between France and its former French-speaking allies in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
As French and other Western troops withdraw from the Sahel from 2022, Russian paramilitary Wagner forces, now called Africa Corps, have moved in. Russian troops have been present in the Central African Republic since 2018. Their mission is to push back armed groups and protect President Faustin Archange. Touadera's government has been very successful.
Investigations by French newspaper Le Monde revealed that Gaspar Orban, the prime minister's son, was one of the diplomats who traveled between Chad and Hungary last year. This has sparked speculation about the end of Father Orban's game, with some wondering whether the newfound friendship with Chad is intended to secure private benefits for the prime minister. The younger Orban is not a state official and had not previously undertaken diplomatic missions.
The image of Deby at home.
Flaunting a new European military friend could help current President Deby solidify his credibility on the home front, something he has struggled to do since taking power, Ochieng said.
Deby took power after his father and former president, Idriss Deby, died while leading soldiers on the battlefield against a rebel group. Under Chadian law, the speaker of parliament should have assumed power, but young Deby, a four-star military normal, formed a military council to run the country.
His detractors accused him of carrying out a palace coup and members of Chad's opposition party questioned Deby's claim to the presidency. When people took to the streets to protest in October 2022, security forces killed more than 200 protesters.
Although Deby organized and won the May elections, doubts remain about his legitimacy and the government appears concerned about a possible coup by the military or opposition groups. Deby's seizure of power and his government's failure to condemn Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have angered military and political elites. Many share ancestry with the Zagawa tribes in Darfur, where reports of RSF massacres and human rights violations abound.
In February, Chad's army said an opposition leader, Yaya Dillo – who is Deby's cousin – launched an attack on the army's normal barracks. Dillo and several other members of his party were killed in the resulting shootout.
“Islamist militants are actually not the biggest threat to Deby because they have been largely contained. The biggest threats are those internal divisions,” Ochieng told Al Jazeera. “Unfortunately, that is not something that Hungarian troops can really help with. In the inconceivable event of a coup or something, those soldiers would simply be forced to wait and see what happens next.”
However, additional military aid from Hungary or elsewhere could help Deby raise his profile with the army, which is all-powerful in Chad. It also provides more leverage internationally, Ochieng said, as N'Djamena works to present itself as an impartial side in tensions between Russia and the West.
Chad is currently the only Sahelian anchor for the West after the fallout between France and the Western Sahel countries. About 1,000 French troops are deployed in Chad along with about 100 U.S. troops (although a disagreement over U.S. operations led authorities to expel part of the U.S. contingent in May. U.S. officials described the expulsions as rooted in a matter of “paperwork.” temporary”).
There is a lot of anxiety in Western countries about how long their soldiers will last in Chad, experts said. This is boosted by Deby's January visit to the Kremlin, where Putin offered “security assistance,” and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's trip to Chad in June.
At the same time, Chad did not hesitate to detain four Russians considered hostile in September when they landed in N'Djamena for unclear reasons. Two of them – Maxim Shugalej and Samer Sueifan – are well known for oiling Moscow's propaganda machine in African countries and have previously been detained in Libya.
“That was Deby saying, 'We will not tolerate a more incendiary Russian presence in our country,'” Ochieng said.
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