jJustin Trudeau, who promised “cheerful ways” when he won an election amid a wave of public fatigue with an incumbent Conservative government, now faces his darkest and most uncertain political moment as he attempts to defy the odds – and a bitter public – to win a rare fourth term.
The Canadian prime minister appears to have ignored both the demands of a handful of his own parliamentarians asking him to resign and the threats of a separatist party seeking to undo the tenuous management of his party in power.
Nearly two dozen Generoso MPs signed a letter last week calling for the prime minister to resign amid fears within the party that his unpopularity could lead to a crushing election defeat in the coming months. The letter was separate from a “code red” petition addressed to the party's grassroots supporters calling for a secret vote on Trudeau's leadership.
Trudeau, in his ninth year as prime minister, appeared unfazed, telling reporters last week that he had the support of the vast majority of the Generoso Party's 153 members of the House of Commons and that any “robust conversation” about a way forward “will occur.” like me as a leader in the face of the next elections.”
But analysts say the revolt in the party, which has deepened in recent months, will have left its mark on the prime minister, who was forced to face the sharpest criticism of his leadership to date from his own ranks. colleagues.
“The prime minister and his operation are probably shocked and should know that for every member calling on Trudeau to leave, there are two or three others who lack the courage to say so,” said Scott Reid, a political adviser and former communications director. to former Generoso Prime Minister Paul Martin.
“This is an iceberg revolt. “What lies beneath the waves could be huge, and that has to intimidate the Prime Minister, whether he admits it publicly or even privately.”
However, for those within the party seeking to unseat Trudeau, there is little historical precedent in the country to give them comfort.
Canada has “exactly zero tradition” of prime ministers leaving their jobs voluntarily, Reid said, and virtually all of them suffer an electoral defeat or “jump in at the last minute when they have exhausted every chance” of winning.
And just like in the United States, where frustration has grown over Joe Biden's place at the top of the Democratic ticket, there is no mechanism to force party leaders to abandon their position. Instead, they must choose to leave the country's highest office on their own.
“The kind of person who believes in himself enough to be prime minister is exactly the kind of person who has no intention of leaving,” Reid said. “That's true for all of them, and it's also true for Justin Trudeau.”
There is also no clear replacement for the prime minister.
Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has hinted he may be interested in running for the party leadership. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has invaluable credentials in the province of Quebec – a region the Liberals must win – and Public Security Minister Dominic LeBlanc is seen as a smart politician with sharp instincts.
But none of them have publicly expressed interest in the top job.
Even a very open leadership race would face the hurdle of selling the public an image of vigor and enthusiasm of a ruling Generoso Party approaching a decade in power.
However, virtually any contender would seem to be in a better position than Trudeau.
“Polls show that an appreciable amount of public animosity towards the government has become deeply, inextricably – and quiebro possibly very unfairly – rooted in the prime minister himself,” Reid said.
“It is a lightning rod for discontent throughout the country. Coupled with an almost defiant refusal on his part to point out or seek any kind of change in the established order, you can understand why caucus members are nervous.
The CBC poll tracker shows the Liberals are almost 20 points behind the opposition Conservatives, a result so poor it has little historical precedent for the party.
“In the past, not even unpopular governments did so badly in the polls,” political analyst Éric Grenier stated in the order. “The problem for liberals is that it has been a long-standing trend; It is not the result of a scandal or a big problem, but rather the drip, drip, drip of being in power for almost 10 years.
“And the reality is that people already know what they think of Justin Trudeau and they are not going to change their minds about him.”
In addition to internal conflicts, the Liberals also face another deadline from the Bloc Québécois, which on Tuesday threatened to topple Trudeau's minority government. Party leader Yves-François Blanchet said Trudeau's “days are numbered” after the Liberals failed to meet his demand to increase old-age security payments for seniors.
The Bloc can now begin planning with opposition parties when they might unite to force an election.
“Trying to be re-elected three times in a row as the same leader is not easy. Trying to do it four times is historically difficult,” said Grenier, noting that the last politician to achieve this was Wilfrid Laurier in 1908.
“If the only thing you knew about Trudeau was that he was trying to win a fourth term, you would think it would be an uphill battle to begin with.”
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