At a glance, last month's sharp drop in inflation's normal figure to 1.7% tells the Bank of England everything it needs to know as it considers whether to cut interest rates next month.
The drop from 2.2% in August puts the price growth rate well below the central bank's target of 2% and back into territory we last saw in early 2021, long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine will skyrocket energy prices.
Before the inflation figures were released, investors were 80% confident of a quarter-percentage point cut in interest rates to 4.75% when policymakers meet next month.
Those odds were subsequently reduced further to 90% and hopes are now growing that rates could fall more aggressively next year, as Bank Governor Andrew Bailey hinted to The Guardian earlier this month if inflation continues to fall more than expected.
Financial markets reacted accordingly to the prospect of a steeper downward trajectory. Sterling began falling in currency markets as soon as September's inflation figure came out, continuing a slide that has dragged the pound from $1.34 at the end of last month to almost $1.30.
Not so quick will be the message from many of the nine officials on the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) that sets rates. They will point out that the most recent drop in inflation depends on the drop in the price of oil and how it passes through to sectors such as transportation.
The Office for National Statistics said the average price of petrol fell by 5.5 pence a liter between August and September 2024 to 136.8 pence.
MPC members will be frightened that food prices continue to rise sharply when they would normally be affected by falling transport costs.
The main indicator of more persistent inflationary trends, the core inflation figure that excludes energy and food because they can be volatile, stood at a much higher rate of 3.2%.
Adding to the picture of an economy still struggling with rising prices, Tuesday's employment figures showed overall private sector wage growth – a measure closely watched by the Bank of England – slowed only slightly from 5 % to 4.8%.
Some MPC members will think that a wage growth rate of more than double the rate of inflation will force companies to keep prices high for longer to maintain their profits.
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This is a harsh view and is unlikely to prevail. Much more relevant is that all price and wage measures are on a downward path and indicate a weakened economic outlook, which needs a boost through lower borrowing costs.
The price of oil is dictated these days more by Beijing's economic decisions than by the conflict in the Middle East. And China, the world's largest oil consumer, is in the midst of a dramatic slowdown caused by a housing bubble that burst spectacularly.
Across the Atlantic, a boom in American economic growth is coming to an end. And the rest of Europe continues to suffer under the twin pressures of the Ukraine war and lower demand from its main export destinations: China and the United States.
It is in this global context that the MPC will consider what the next step for interest rates will be. And this increases the likelihood that they will now fall a little faster than expected.
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